Results/Incumbency Results
ECI results
Analysis · representation

Do incumbents survive?

MANIPUR, 1962–2019. 15 elections tracked.

All IndiaANDHRA PRADESHARUNACHAL PRADESHASSAMBIHARCHHATTISGARHDAMAN AND DIUDELHIGOAGUJARATHARYANAHIMACHAL PRADESHJAMMU AND KASHMIRJHARKHANDKARNATAKAKERALAMADHYA PRADESHMAHARASHTRAMANIPURMEGHALAYAMIZORAMNAGALANDODISHAPUDUCHERRYPUNJABRAJASTHANSIKKIMTAMIL NADUTELANGANATRIPURAUTTAR PRADESHUTTARAKHANDWEST BENGAL
Incumbent re-election
0.0
2019 · 0 of 0
Incumbents contesting
0.0
0 of 2 seats
First-time winners
50.0
1 new faces
Turncoats
0
0 won · strike rate 0.0%
Vs previous
-100.0pp
From 100.0% in 2014

[01]Incumbent re-election rate

Share of sitting MPs/MLAs who won again, 1962–2019
  1. 2019
    0.0%
  2. 2014
    100.0%
  3. 2009
    50.0%
  4. 2004
    0.0%
  5. 1999
    50.0%
  6. 1998
    50.0%
  7. 1996
    50.0%
  8. 1991
    100.0%
  9. 1989
    100.0%
  10. 1984
    0.0%
  11. 1980
    0.0%
  12. 1977
    100.0%
  13. 1971
    50.0%
  14. 1967
    0.0%
  15. 1962
    0.0%

[02]First-time winners

Share of winners entering parliament/assembly for the first time
  1. 2019
    50.0%
  2. 2014
    0.0%
  3. 2009
    50.0%
  4. 2004
    100.0%
  5. 1999
    0.0%
  6. 1998
    0.0%
  7. 1996
    50.0%
  8. 1991
    50.0%
  9. 1989
    0.0%
  10. 1984
    0.0%
  11. 1980
    100.0%
  12. 1977
    0.0%
  13. 1971
    50.0%
  14. 1967
    100.0%
  15. 1962
    100.0%

[03]Turncoats over time

Candidates who switched parties between elections
2014 2 turncoats0 won (0.0%)
2009 1 turncoats0 won (0.0%)
2004 1 turncoats0 won (0.0%)
1999 3 turncoats1 won (33.33%)
1998 2 turncoats1 won (50.0%)
1996 2 turncoats0 won (0.0%)
1991 2 turncoats0 won (0.0%)
1984 1 turncoats1 won (100.0%)
1980 3 turncoats0 won (0.0%)
1977 1 turncoats0 won (0.0%)
1971 2 turncoats0 won (0.0%)
1967 1 turncoats0 won (0.0%)

[04]Incumbents contesting

How many sitting members sought re-election
2014 2 contesting2 won · 100.0% strike rate
2009 2 contesting1 won · 50.0% strike rate
2004 1 contesting0 won · 0.0% strike rate
1999 2 contesting1 won · 50.0% strike rate
1998 2 contesting1 won · 50.0% strike rate
1996 2 contesting1 won · 50.0% strike rate
1991 1 contesting1 won · 100.0% strike rate
1989 2 contesting2 won · 100.0% strike rate
1984 1 contesting0 won · 0.0% strike rate
1980 2 contesting0 won · 0.0% strike rate
1977 1 contesting1 won · 100.0% strike rate
1971 2 contesting1 won · 50.0% strike rate
1967 1 contesting0 won · 0.0% strike rate

[05]Computed insights

Arithmetic over the tables above, not commentary

  1. The 2019 incumbent re-election rate of 0.0% is below the historical average of 43.3%.

    0.0% vs avg 43.3%

  2. The strongest anti-incumbency wave was in 2019 — only 0.0% of incumbents survived (0 of 0).

    Lowest: 2019 at 0.0%

  3. Incumbents fared best in 2014 with a 100.0% re-election rate (2 of 2).

    Highest: 2014 at 100.0%

  4. 1 winners in 2019 (50.0%) entered parliament/assembly for the first time.

    1 first-time winners in 2019

  5. Party-switching peaked in 1999 with 3 turncoats, of whom 1 won (33.33% strike rate).

    Peak: 3 turncoats in 1999
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